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China had 267.36 million people aged over 60 at the end of 2021, representing 18.9 per cent of the population, up from 264.02 million a year earlier. Photo: AP

Explainer | China population: with 2022 set to be a turning point, what’s next as economy, coronavirus take toll?

  • After increasing by just 480,000 to 1.4126 billion last year, demographers have predicted that China’s population could reach a turning point in 2022
  • Some 13 out of China’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions saw their populations shrink last year, with six suffering declines for the first time in modern history

As China’s path to fully reopening remains murky and chaotic with mounting economic headwinds, one pitfall seems to be more inevitable than others – the looming demographic crisis.

Demographers have predicted that China’s population could reach a turning point in 2022, with bleak birth rates and anecdotal evidence indicating that the increasing economic and political pressures have taken a toll.

The 20th party congress in November highlighted that “timely adjustments” have already been made to China’s childbirth policy, while President Xi Jinping also promised further improvements.

Demographers, though, have argued that it will be difficult for China to reverse the effects of its previous one-child policy amid the ongoing economic disruptions and changing attitudes within society towards marriage and family.

What key population figures were revealed in 2022?

Mothers in China gave birth to just 10.62 million babies in 2021, representing an 11.5 per cent drop from 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed in January.

The national death rate was 7.18 per thousand last year, putting the national growth rate at 0.34 per thousand.

This contributed to an overall population increase of just 480,000 to 1.4126 billion last year.

The national birth rate also fell to a record low 7.52 births for every 1,000 people, down from 8.52 in 2020, to the lowest rate since records began in 1949.

Some 13 out of China’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions saw their populations shrink last year, with six suffering declines for the first time in modern history.

What’s the make-up of China’s population?

China’s working-age population age – between 16 and 59 – stood at 882.22 million at the end of 2021, representing 62.5 per cent of the population, down from 63.35 per cent in 2020 and 74.53 in 2010.

China had 267.36 million people aged over 60 at the end of 2021, representing 18.9 per cent of the population, up from 264.02 million a year earlier.

Last year, 200 million people were aged 65 and over, up from 190.64 million in 2020, and accounting for 14.2 per cent of the population.

Permanent residents in urban areas increased by 12.05 million to 914.25 million, while rural permanent residents fell by 11.57 million to 498.35 million last year.

China’s so-called floating population, featuring mostly migrant workers, reached 384.67 million in 2021, 8.85 million more than in 2020.

How many people are getting married in China?

The number of marriage registrations in China dropped by 7.5 per cent in the first three quarters of 2022, reaching 5.4 million, according to official data.

Last year, 7.64 million marriages were registered, which was the lowest total since records began in 1986, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs.

The number of people getting married for the first time, a statistic more closely tied to new births, dropped to a record low of 11.58 million people last year, down by 708,000 from 2020, to the lowest since 1985.

02:07

Population decline in China raises concerns of economic implications

Population decline in China raises concerns of economic implications

In November, authorities from the Inner Mongolia autonomous region said three years of coronavirus restrictions had not only brought tremendous impact on the economy, but also affected the normal life of residents, with marriage rates suffering.

​​Official records from Sichuan province showed that the number of marriage registrations dropped by nearly 30 per cent in 2021 compared to 2016.

The local government attributed the decline to a fall in the population within a marriageable age, rising wedding costs and a more diverse perception of marriage.

What’s been done to address China’s population problems in 2022?

After officially ending its one-child policy in January 2016 and responding to the 2020 census results by allowing each couple in the country to have up to three children since May 2021, China has taken further steps this year.

Provincial and municipal authorities have rolled out initiatives to encourage people to have more children, including offering parents more days off work as well as financial support.

In May, Jiangsu also became the first Chinese province to subsidise companies for paying insurance to female employees during their second and third period of maternity leave.

Companies can be reimbursed for 50 or 80 per cent of the social insurance paid to women who have a second child or a third child for six months, in a move viewed as a bid to help counter discrimination against hiring women.

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In November, Ningshan county in Shaanxi province became the first to offer cash subsidies to all couples, with a one-time subsidy of 2,000 yuan (US$287) for one child, 3,000 yuan for two and 5,000 yuan for three.

It also vowed to provide a monthly subsidy of 600 yuan for couples with two children until the second child turns three-years-old, while couples with three children can receive 1,200 yuan per month until the third child reaches 36 months.

In December, Yunnan province also offered one-time cash subsidies for families with a second and third child.

Cities are also loosening home purchase limits for parents with more children, while many have also started to cover assisted productive techniques under medical insurance.

01:38

China to roll out new incentives for couples to have more babies amid birth rate drop

China to roll out new incentives for couples to have more babies amid birth rate drop

In February, officials in Beijing announced that the city will include more than a dozen fertility services in a government-backed medical insurance scheme.

To address the problem of declining marriage registrations, provincial authorities are even playing the role of matchmaker, with vows to help young people find a partner while also implementing policies to ease financial burdens.

China has also launched a new nationwide marital and maternity survey to gain insight into what is driving the country’s declining marriage and birth rates.

The survey, authorised by the NBS and carried out in conjunction with family planning and demographic authorities, kicked off in September in several regions of Hunan province.

What’s next for China’s population?

Demographers predict that the negative effects of the coronavirus on births will bring the fertility rate in 2022 even lower than it was last year, while many have estimated that China’s population will peak this year and start declining in 2023.

“We will improve the population development strategy, establish a policy system to boost birth rates, and bring down the costs of pregnancy and childbirth, child rearing, and schooling,” Xi said in his speech to the 20th party congress.

Some demographers also see China entering a normalised phase of population decline, meaning the population level could fluctuate around the point of growth stagnation in the coming years before it starts to decline.

03:35

As world population hits 8 billion, China frets over too few babies

As world population hits 8 billion, China frets over too few babies

Chen Wei, a professor with the Population Development Studies Centre at Renmin University, said earlier this year that China’s natural population growth might not continue falling in the next 10 to 20 years, instead it will fluctuate around zero and could see small declines without rapid decreases.

India is projected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country next year, according to the United Nations’ “World Population Prospects 2022”.

Just three years ago, the UN projection was for India to overtake China by around 2027.

By 2050, China’s population is expected to have fallen to around 1.32 billion, while India’s will have hit 1.67 billion, according to the UN.

China is expected to release its official 2022 population figures at the start of next year.

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