Executive Summary: The geopolitical backdrop for investing is foggy with uncertainties. Israel and Iran are flailing with no strategic plan on either side, their aggressions simply reactions to the other’s provocations. Financial markets are bracing for global economic impacts

Executive Summary: As the war in the Middle East escalates, it could send the oil price flying toward $100 per barrel and wipe out our expectations of continued moderation in US inflation (notwithstanding March’s anomalous CPI). … Barring that

Executive Summary: Federal incentives coaxing manufacturers to produce in the USA are hitting their mark. Willing takers may see up to 15% of their factory construction costs covered by Uncle Sam. Some states are sweetening the deal further. Jackie

Executive Summary: The Q1 reporting season should be a good one, with plenty of S&P 500 companies exceeding analysts’ expectations, Joe reports. His analysis of patterns in estimate revisions as reporting seasons approach shows the stage is set for

Executive Summary: Today, we examine a plausible and concerning scenario for the stock market: The war in the Middle East drives the price of oil above $100 a barrel. That would trigger expectations of resurgent inflation à la the

Executive Summary: There was no recession last year, but the widespread expectation of one depressed certain economic activities, like hiring. With that depressant now lifted, several labor market indicators shot to record highs in March. … Consumer spending has

Executive Summary: The widespread expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates this year is linked to the widespread expectation that the labor market will weaken. Both may be misguided. If the economy remains resilient and the labor market

Executive Summary: The unforeseen pandemic briefly derailed our “Roaring 2020s” outlook early this decade. The one big potential risk to it that we had identified back in 2020 is a war between Israel and Iran that disrupts oil markets

Executive Summary: The US economy is flying high and should continue to do so. It has defied the past two years’ widespread expectations that it would land hard or fall into recession. In fact, last year’s real GDP growth

Executive Summary: If the market for existing homes revs up as mortgage rates drop, will homebuilders be able to clear their excess inventories? Investors don’t seem worried, Jackie notes. … Also: The sole constituent of the S&P 500 Drug

Executive Summary: Melissa reviews the challenges facing the central banks of Japan, China, and the Eurozone as they eye—or make—monetary policy moves. The BOJ is finally unwinding its extreme monetary ease (no more sub-zero interest rates!). The PBOC is

Executive Summary: Reading between the lines of Fed Chair Powell’s recent press conference, he seems to be reassuring financial markets that the Fed has their backs. We see that in his emphasis that labor market weakness—should it unexpectedly arise—could

Executive Summary: Is the “Fed Put” back? Might the Fed’s assurances that interest rates will be brought down this year (as long as inflation behaves as expected) fuel irrational exuberance among investors? And what if interest rates really don’t

Executive Summary: China’s economic woes are having a disinflationary domino effect on the economies of its major trading partners; the US is a case in point. The heightened trade tensions that might result could prompt those trading partners to

Executive Summary: With excitement over Nvidia’s AI-enabling offerings never greater than after its GTC conference this week, Jackie offers a timely word of caution: Nvidia investors would do well to keep an eye out for the peaking of the

Executive Summary: Confidence measures among both consumers and small business owners are depressed, somewhat counterintuitively given the strength of the economy. Depressed sentiment doesn’t typically cause recessions, and the Fed has plenty of room to ease, nipping in the

Executive Summary: Unlike in January, investors’ rate-cut expectations now appear to be in sync with FOMC members’ projections. Both seem to be anticipating two or three 25-basis-point cuts over the coming months. … Whether the apolitical Fed might time

Executive Summary: A quarter century ago, people saw Cisco as a way to invest in the enormous potential of the Internet. Investors bid up its shares, and purchasing managers over-ordered its products, expecting rationing since supplies were tight. What

Executive Summary: Inflation is well under control, in our opinion, as February’s CPI—excluding the anomalous shelter component—is right around the Fed’s 2% y/y target. But with retail sales suggesting strong consumer spending, the Fed needn’t rush to ease. …

Executive Summary: The US economy is outperforming most other countries, keeping the dollar strong. The global economic weakness has depressed the prices of commodities, especially oil, and helped moderate inflation. But globalization is alive and well: Export volumes are

Executive Summary: Is Bostic on to something? We think the Atlanta Fed president is right to warn about “pent-up exuberance,” the business community’s readiness to pounce on opportunities en masse the minute interest rates drop. Demand then could surge,

Executive Summary: If Target’s recent quarterly earnings report is indicative, retailers have reached the light at the end of the excessive-inventory tunnel. Jackie shares what Target management had to say about the benefits of appropriate inventory levels now that they’ve

Executive Summary: OPEC + is extending its oil production cuts in an effort to support oil prices amid sluggish global economic growth and rising oil output from outside the cartel. Today, we look at world oil demand and supplies.

Executive Summary:  Some of the major economies of the world are in recessions or nearly so, but the global economy is holding up thanks to the strong US economy. Perversely, several global stock markets are at record highs, with

Executive Summary: Bouts of geopolitical or domestic political strife usually don’t derail the US stock market. Investors tend to divorce politics from their decision making, counting on wars to end and gridlock to keep regulation-happy lawmakers in check. Only

Executive Summary: Looking at the S&P 500’s ytd performance by sector can be deceptive. You’d never guess that one underperforming sector, Materials, is home to three industries among the S&P 500’s top performing. Also not apparent is the breadth

Executive Summary: When there’s no recession on the horizon, earnings reporting seasons invariably pleasantly surprise as actual results top analysts’ consensus expectations. This earnings season is no exception. Today, we look at the impacts that S&P 500 companies’ December-quarter

Executive Summary: A few major economies of the world are in recessions currently, but the global economy as a whole is not—thanks mostly to the strong US economy holding it aloft. China is in a recession for reasons we’ve

Executive Summary: Many of this decade’s economic and financial market trends bear a striking resemblance to those of the 1990s. That was a decade in which a stock market meltup preceded a meltdown (in the early 2000s), so monitoring

Executive Summary: With good incomes and debt that isn’t growing faster than incomes, consumers have been spending apace over the past quarter, but selectively. Jackie shares insights into what they’ve been buying and passing up, gleaned from the quarterly