It was inevitable but is worth noting that Republican midterm chances seem to be reviving as Election Day, Nov. 8, draws nearer.
Parties hope to find an October surprise to jolt sentiment against opponents late in the race, but voters focus less on passing irritations and more on cardinal concerns the closer they are to making their decision.
As transitory annoyances recede, the public’s abiding worries stand out like rocks increasingly visible above an ebbing tide. So GOP election prospects are helped by the latest Fox News finding that 59% of people are extremely concerned about rising prices. Inflation is unambiguously President Joe Biden’s and the Democrats’ fault — it arrived before Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine allowed the real culprits to muddy the waters — so voters know Washington’s leadership is a pain in their wallets. The opportunity to replace many of them is less than seven weeks away.
The “future of democracy” is extremely concerning to half of respondents, but that cuts both ways because each side seems to represent as much a danger as the other. Then there is abortion policy at 45%, which helps Democrats, and higher crime rates at 43%, which favors Republicans. Two of the three top issues, therefore, break for Republicans.
The persistence of inflation as a fact and as the cause of public disquiet makes GOP victories that Washington thought “baked in” six months ago, but collapsed like a premature souffle this summer, seem possible again. Hence Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) talks optimistically behind the scenes after weeks of gloom and complaint about weak Trumpy candidates.
In the race for the seat of Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), who is retiring, Republican J.D. Vance is tied with Democrat Tim Ryan, according to the latest Marist Poll, and incumbent Gov. Mike DeWine’s 18-point lead over his blue challenger might give Vance red coattails to ride on. Dr. Mehmet Oz is narrowing the lead enjoyed in Pennsylvania by Democrat John Fetterman, his debate-shy opponent who appears to be covering up ailments related to a recent stroke. So the race for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) is very much up for grabs. Over-optimism about the chances of Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) keeping his seat has prompted laughable talk about his having presidential chances, but it’s more likely that former football star Herschel Walker will plow him under just as he plowed through NFL defenders back in the day.
Never underestimate the GOP’s ability to find a banana skin to slip up on, but the fundamentals still favor Republicans. They bungled the abortion debate after Roe v. Wade was overturned despite having 50 years to get their talking points straight. And they continue to be wrapped in a Trumpian stench.
But elections ask whether those in power have done a good job and deserve to stay or be replaced. Democrats running Washington have done their best to make the election about abortion and Trump, but it is really about their fiscal incompetence producing inflation that is draining value from all our incomes and savings, as well as rising interest rates and likely a recession. The economy was booming until the Democrats took over. Now it’s gone boom. The two are very different.
