Italy’s next government may be more nationalist than Europe likes

Asurge of migrants rescued from rickety boats in the Mediterranean on July 23rd and 24th seemed to echo the chaos in Italian politics. Over 2,000 arrived, overwhelming the reception centre on the island of Lampedusa. Two days earlier Sergio Mattarella, the president, announced an election would be held on September 25th, following the resignation of Mario Draghi as prime minister. As during the much bigger crisis of 2014-16, rising numbers of migrants are a boon for Italy’s far right.

At the last general election in 2018, fears of uncontrolled migration helped the hard-right Northern League win enough votes to enter government as the junior partner in a coalition with the left-leaning Five Star Movement (m5s). Though the m5s acted as a brake on the League, the two populist parties sent a wave of apprehension through Europe and clashed repeatedly with the European Commission. Back then, the combined vote share of the League and Italy’s other hard-right party, the Brothers of Italy (fdi), was below 22%.