A three-decade high in inflation sows concerns about America’s recovery

IF AN AVERAGE American decided that last month was high time to buy a new sofa and then spent his evenings drinking beer on it, he would have been lucky. Both the furniture and the brew cost a little less than a few weeks earlier. Unfortunately, that same American may have been painfully aware that just about everything else—his rent, the petrol for his car, his food and even that new leafy plant next to the sofa—cost a fair bit more. The best level for inflation, economists joke, is when people do not notice it. In America it is becoming very noticeable. In October the consumer-price index rose by 6.2% compared with a year earlier, the highest rate in more than three decades (see chart 1).

As inflation has accelerated economists and officials have debated whether it is a transitory phenomenon—reflecting overstretched supply chains—or a more persistent problem. It is far more than an academic debate. If inflation is short-lived, the right move for the Federal Reserve would be to look through it, aware that jacking up interest rates may do more harm than good. If, however, inflation is stubbornly high, the central bank is duty-bound to tame it. The big jump in prices in October tilts the debate in favour of “Team Persistent”, as some have taken to calling it, and puts pressure on the Fed.